Sunday, February 27, 2011

Do You Believe these Statistics?

People are jamming MetroCard machines, keeping people from buying MetroCards, and then illegally selling MetroCard swipes. According to the New York Post, "In Brooklyn, vandals at the Utica Avenue station that serves the 3 and 4 trains broke machines 198 times in December alone -- second only to Nostrand Avenue, where vandals took out 228 Metrocard machines, according to MTA data requested by The Post."

198/31 > 6. So if they broke machines 198 times in December, they'd need to break more than 6 machines a day. These criminals only jam the slot through which one puts bills. If I recall correctly, at the Schenectady Ave. entrance there are only two machines that accept bills. I don't know how many machines there are on the Utica Ave. side, but I imagine that no more than four accept bills. So to get 198 breakages in a month, they'd need to basically break every single machine every single day. I don't doubt that these criminals are up to that. I just can't believe that the MTA fixes the machines so quickly that they're ready to broken every day--even on weekends and holidays.

The next statistic is even more disturbing. 228 "broken machines" at Nostrand? That's not possible, considering there aren't 228 machines at Nostrand. Presumably they mean 228 breakages, distributed among much fewer machines. Fine. Now which Nostrand are they talking about? If it's the Nostrand Ave 3 station, there are only two bill-accepting machines there. To break two machines 228 times in one month requires breaking each machine (228/31)/2 = 3.67741935 times each day. There is no way the MTA could fix a machine more than three times a day, so how could vandals break the machines that often? Perhaps they meant the Nostrand Ave A/C line? I'm not familiar with that station, but I don't think it's such a huge station that 228 breakages would be plausible. Maybe the 228 breakages weren't all in December? Maybe they meant 228 breakages on the entire Nostrand Ave, which would include the A/C station, the 3 station, and all the 2/5 stations between President and Flatbush Ave-Brooklyn College? 228 breakages between all those stations is plausible. But if that's what they meant, then why the hell can't the Post write that? And if that's what meant, then how can they say that Utica is second to Nostrand? Maybe they should compare the entire Eastern Parkway to Nostrand Avenue?

Unlike the innumeracy I mentioned in the previous posts, this article does not talk about any huge numbers. Everyone has a pretty good grasp of magnitutes like 198 and 228. So then how could the Post publish these numbers without thinking about what these numbers mean? These numbers came from "MTA data requested by the Post." If the MTA coughed up the numbers just for them, can't they report the numbers in context?

PEOPLE!! Numbers are not conceptual art! You can not just play with them to make them mean whatever you want them to mean!

20 comments:

  1. "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

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  2. But you can put numbers in pretty little designs that will hang in museums and piss all the mathematicians off.

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  3. and you can also declare that sometimes 2 + 2 = 22 and make bad movies like pi

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  4. well you're just a "Negative No-No!" according to Jojo.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx9dUG4sQM4
    (45 seconds in)

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  5. Jojo probably thinks numbers are conceptual art and that vandals can break one machine thrice in one day.

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  6. bah, why don't you dress up as that homeless man then and find out the truth.

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  7. e, never watch inception. the movie can be explained in mathematical terms, but has holes. so dont watch it and then ruin the fun for me.

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  8. too late. http://eholdsforth.blogspot.com/2011/01/more-on-suspension-of-disbelief-why.html

    I noticed the holes only the second time I watched it. So all in all, watching Inception was a good experience.

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  9. maybe breaking the machine is a metaphor?
    OR: to fix a broken machine requires a worker to use a paper clip and get the stuffed card out. I can see that happening a few times daily.

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  10. Metaphor: no
    Easily-fixed machines: Maybe. but probably not. If the station agent was fixing the machine three times a day he or she'd get the police involved and chase away the bums. That's if the station agents are competent and qualified enough to fix machines themselves.

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  11. One does wonder if this has anything to do with the removal (within the last year) of one of Utica's manned booths.

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  12. I would like to note there were MTA workers present both when I entered Utica station this morning and left several hours later.

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  13. TRS: I read somewhere that the MTA lost money by removing all those station agents because more people were jumping the turnstiles. They were meant to install security cameras to make up for it, but of course those cost a bajillion dollars and were all broken....

    TRS: You mean they were installing countdown clocks? oh joy! On Saturday night I walked from from near Schenectady all the way to Kingston because I didn't want to wait without knowing how long the wait would be.

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  14. And of course now that they've removed the physical booths as well...

    Joy to the world! And they've also got 'em in Penn now, which is nice (for some of us).

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  15. Now if they'd just install them in 96th street...

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  16. it would seem that i missed a post or two

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Forth shall ye all hold.